let n= years to maturity , c= coupon rate , y = yield to matutiry, r = redemption price.
General price formula:
❶ Price = f ( n , c , y , r ) =
∑ i=1 n c / ( 1 + y )
i + r / ( 1 + y )n
Variation and modified duration:
First derivative of
f(x) = 1/( 1 + x )n :
❷ f'(x)= = - n * 1 /( 1 + x )(n+1)
Hence first derivative of price / y = variation =
- ∑ i=1 n i * c / ( 1 + y )
(i+1) - n * r / ( 1 + y ) (n+1)
variation (PV01) is a measure of the absolute change in price for a "small" change in y , denoted ∈ .
=
So Price ( y + ∈ ) = Price( y ) + variation * ∈
while modified duration is the relative change in price for a a "small" change in y , denoted ∈ .
( Price ( y + ∈ ) -Price( y ) )/Price( y ) = modified duration * ∈
modified duration = variation / price( y ).
Why does it work for "small" changes only?
Think as the first derivative as a way to simplify the underlying function with a straight line.
First derivative is a tangent to the function at the point where it was calculated.
The more the underlying function is different from a straight line ( convex / concave ), the more difference we will get between f'( y ) and f( y ).
Nota bene: although usually expressed as positive numbers, variation and modified duration are actually negative numbers. (see ❷) ( An increase in y will infer a decrease in price )
Raw convexity / convexity:
Second derivative of
f(x) = 1/( 1 + x )n :
❸ f''(x)= = - (n+1) * (- n) * 1 /( 1 + x )(n+2)
Nota bene: In that case f''(x) is always positive! That means the buyer of the bond will lose less (resp earn more) than forecasted with the first derivative as y moves up (resp down). The price function is convex.
raw convexity = ∑ i=1 n ( i + 1 ) * i * c / ( 1 + y )
(i+2) + (n+1) * n * r / ( 1 + y ) (n+2)
convexity =raw convexity / price( y )
One step further:
A bond price formula can be "well" replicated with it's two first derivatives.
For any x move in y, f(x+y) ≃ f(y) + x * f'(y) + 0.5 * (x)
2 * f''(y)
f(y + ∈) = f(y) + ∈ * variation + (∈)
2 * 0.5 * raw convexity
See general Taylor expansion theory:
wiki Taylor series